While the June jobs report, coming Friday, is expected to show that hiring continued at a healthy pace last month, other recent indicators in areas like consumer spending, construction and auto sales have been decidedly less robust.While hardly terrible, it is not the burst of growth — a “Trump bump” — that many expected to result from an upturn in consumer and business sentiment after President Trump’s election.[...] the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely followed GDP Now forecast expects the second-quarter growth figure to come in at 3 percent, more than a full percentage point below where it was in May.“We never seem to have the rebound that people anticipate,” said Stephanie Pomboy, an independent economist in New York who has been skeptical about initially rosy forecasts favored by many of her colleagues in recent quarters.Far from living up to expectations of a lift after Trump’s election, the growth rate in the first quarter turned out to be an anemic 1.4 percent.The indicators that Trump highlighted in recent messages on Twitter are indeed pointing in the right direction — strong job creation, a record high for the Dow Jones industrial average and low gasoline prices.Experts say that without a meaningful change in government policies — greater infrastructure investment, an overhaul of the corporate tax code, a new commitment to improve the skills of American workers — there is no reason to expect the domestic outlook to change.With higher borrowing costs practically inevitable in the future, Anderson said, “the real tragedy is that the price tag for any future infrastructure spending will be a lot higher.”Pomboy pointed out that changing consumer habits in the wake of the financial crisis and the recession — notably an increased wariness about spending and taking on debt — also explain what is looking more and more like a long-term downshift.The household savings rate, which bottomed out at 2.2 percent amid the housing bubble in 2005, now stands at 5.5 percent.In addition to being more cautious about spending in general and about borrowing against their homes in particular, Pomboy said, consumers are holding back on discretionary purchases because of the rising health insurance premiums and medical costs as well as onerous student debt payments.Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit, goes so far as to say, “we’re chugging along here,” citing healthy income growth and hiring, as well as a strong housing market.Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis research firm whose crystal ball is highly regarded among forecasters, began the second quarter by calling for 3.6 percent growth but now estimates the rate will be more like 2.5 percent.
NYS Entity Status
NYS Filing Date
MAY 20, 2013
NYS DOS ID#
RICHARD J. ROY
45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA
NEW YORK, NEW YORK, 10020
NYS Entity Type
FOREIGN LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY
2013 - LUCROR ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH AND INCOME BLOCKER, LLC
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